Discussion of Main Findings and Other Observations

The Performance Lines

Finding

 The Performance Lines reveal strong stamina over distance for both Secretariat and ManO'War. On inspecting the slopes, it appears that Secretariat's line is slightly flatter suggesting a heightened speed potential, relative to his races, over longer distances. ManO'War, relative to his performances, demonstrates a finer burst over shorter distances. The distance between the two lines is a measure of track speed, ability, and other factors that affect raw finishing times. At this point, given that a mean difference of about 3.5 seconds separates the lines, it is not possible to tell which factors offer the greatest explanation for the disparity. The resulting study explores this question.

Discussion

The performance lines reveal a brief snap-shot of potential over distance by inserting a line of prediction through the best raw times of both colts. The chart is in the simple bivariate form of Recorded Time (unadjusted for track conditions, etc.) by Distance. Though the use of the one independent variable Distance leaves a host of other factors unaccounted for, this line gives a graphic of potential given all the differing conditions encountered between the differing courses. At first look the similarity of these lines is remarkable, both increasing at about the same rate. Some have suggested that to get a cleaner view of the slopes, track speeds, at the least, should have been taken into consideration. If, for example, we were to adjust Secretariat's Derby time for course speed, according to the longitudinal trends found in the regression modeling developed in the second half of this paper his result would have been slowed by 1/5 fifth of a second (track fast 1/5). We would then adjust it to 1:59 3/5s. Other studies found the surface fast by as much as 3/5s of a second whence his time adjusted to two minutes flat. Adjusting Secretariat's Belmont Stake's time for course speed would, by our model, improve his performance by as much as 1 to 2 fifths of a second (track slow 1 to 2 fifths). It has been written that the Belmont track had been fast in the weeks leading to the race and that records were set that lasted for a time. Bill Nack in "The Making of a Champion" made a similar observation but rejoined stating that by race day the track had slowed. Reviewing 1974's American Racing Manual shows that beginning 4 weeks prior to the Belmont, as many as 4 main course records were set that covered distances from 5.5 to 8 furlongs. Three weeks before the race, stakes winner Stop-The-Music set the mile at  1:33 3/5s. Two weeks later, he ran the one mile Withers and finished 3 lengths behind Linda's Chief's time of 1:34 4/5s, about seven to eight fifths slower than the record he set earlier. The track was fast but it was slowing. The day preceding the Belmont, a precocious two-year-old stakes winner Raise-A-Cup set the record for 5.5 furlongs. However, on Belmont day, though a final DRF course variant of 05 was recorded by day's end, it can be shown that the surface had in fact slowed. (The practice of using DRF variants to estimate track speed has long been under scrutiny by those who are in the business of estimating the abilities of Thoroughbreds. Critics have known that they are strongly influenced by class ability, and less by the speed of the tracks. It is difficult to tell whether the movement of a variant is due to track speed or class speed.) Sources show that the 2 dirt races preceding the Belmont Stakes recorded DRF speed ratings of 92 and 99 for one mile and one and one sixteenth miles respectively.  The 99 was recorded by Forego in the 7th race that had him finish 9 lengths ahead of the rest of the field. The veteran sprinter Spanish Riddle in a stretch duel with 3 others recorded the 92. It must be noted that the DRF speed rating of 92 for Spanish Riddle's victory is in question. The mile track record that day was at 1:33 3/5 as had been set by Stop The Music the previous month. It seems that Spanish Riddle's rating had been derived not from that record but from the prior mark at 1:34 2/5s; or more accurately, his rating should have been an 88. The same error applies to the first mile contest that day that should have received a rating of 92 in place of the 96 the DRF assigned. These errors had the effect of inflating the track variant towards a faster rating which over the years has fueled criticism of Secretariat's performance. It appears that these claims are not justified. These errors, however, will not interfere with the present point. Continuing with the recorded data, the 3 races previous to the Belmont were ran two at distances of 1 1/16th (this distance record had yet to be broken) and one at one mile. Now, given Secretariat's rating of 113, the first 3 performances can be averaged at 90 so that by the time Forego stepped onto the course for his race, the DRF track variant was approximately 10. After Forego's finish, it dropped to 08; and after Secretariat's race to 05. The variant had been skewed down by the performances of two colts with exceptional class, Forego and Secretariat, in the two feature races of the day which were ran on a surface that had slowed to a moderately fast speed at best. Additional evidence can be presented in support of this argument: in the original calculation of Secretariat's 1973 Beyer figure of 148, Andy Beyer, known for developing a finer set of criteria for evaluating track conditions and performances, used a track variant of +4 (a '+' in the Beyer system indicates 'slow') in his calculation of Secretariat's figure that day. He determined that the track had slowed by some 4/5s from the mean speed over the previous weeks. With this, it can be concluded that by race day the track was moderately fast, closer to a 9 or 10, but not the blazing 05 or less which some have used to downplay Secretariat's performance. Now, using these adjusted figures for the two races would have the effect of raising Secretariat's Performance Line by a slight amount at the shorter distances while lowering it at the longer stretches thereby displaying a heightened potential, relative to his races, over longer ranges. Keep in mind that ManO'War's times are unadjusted as well and recall that his best performances also occurred at Belmont's main track, a course that had been resurfaced in 1919 making it one of the fastest in the circuit at that time. The DRF track variants for the Lawrence and Jockey Club Cup were 00 and 02 respectively. No doubt, his performances distorted the figures as Secretariat distorted them in 1973. Of course, all this is only partially acceptable in that track speed and other co-determinants of finishing time can vary greatly over long periods of history. These issues affect not only the slopes of the lines but the magnitude of the distance between them. The best approach is to have standardized reference points in terms of time and location from which to estimate the parameters of interest. In the absence of such measures this study attempts an alternate approach as it proposes to isolate and adjust two of Secretariat’s points for track speed and other variants whose cumulative effects distort published times. 

Overall Equine Contribution to Performance for the Referent Races

Improved Over the Period in Question (Thoroughbreds Got Faster)

Findings

After adjusting for non-equine factors, horse ability in the Derby and Belmont improved over the period in question. At the Derby distance of  1 1/4 miles, performance improved by approx. 2 seconds, or by about 1.6 %, and at the Belmont distance of 1 1/2 miles, by approx. 1 second or .66%. These numbers were derived by using the Regression model to predict finishing times in 1920 and 1973 and then adjusting the difference between them by subtracting the contribution of the independent variable. The predicted Derby time in 1973 is 2:01; the predicted time for 1920 is 2:05. According to our model, since the independent variable contributed approximately .50 to outcomes, we can conclude that the difference of 4 seconds between the beginning and ends points of this period can be adjusted by [.50(4)]; or, by 1973 winners on average improved by about 2 seconds. These same operations were used to calculate improvements to Belmont performances. Was this to be expected? Yes. Research by European equine geneticists covering the period of the 1960s to the 1980s catalogued improvements in the abilities of European specimens, both Thoroughbreds and Standardbreds, by about a factor of  1.5 percent at six furlongs. Just what factors contribute to the findings is debatable. Diet, larger populations and bloodlines, better breeding methods and improved training programs all advance the family. If improvements occurred in those populations, then it can be concluded that improvements also occurred in the North and South American breeds whose share in European lines cannot be overstated.

Time Projections

Discussion

The Kentucky Derby

Addressing the first point of discussion, with respect to the Kentucky Derby, given that ManO'War did not run this race in 1920, his time for the 1 1/4 distance is taken from the Travers Stakes at Saratoga and therefore cannot serve as an effective comparison. The model can account neither for the conditions and layout of the Saratoga track nor for the month of the year in which the race was scheduled. ManO'War's three pound weight differential also is unaccounted for, so it seems the Derby is not the best competition to consider for reference. Add to this the large differential in field size which can influence performance: the Derby's 13 to the Travers' 3. Larger fields can have an adverse effect on time as competitors often run wide through turns or get trapped behind or between horses. All that can be contrasted is raw time regardless of the factors unique to the tracks and races. Secretariat's projected time bettered ManO'War's official time by about 3/5s of a second.

Another discussion point concerns Secretariat's adjusted time. Some have said the model does not account for track speed, that the predicted times should be adjusted accordingly. This is not accurate. The official finishing times are adjusted according to a composite of components of which course speed is one. The model provides a projected time based on averages of these internal components; it does not call for a readjustment at the start point followed by another correction at the end point. To calibrate it to a particular track speed at either end would inflate the effects of these factors. Still the question persists, when comparing an actual finishing time to a predicted time, what is to say that actual track speed is influencing time to a greater or lesser extent than that predicted by the par model? In answering, it may still be possible to get some sense of a track's variant by identifying and determining the finishing time of the most 'typical' performer(s) amongst the first 3 finishers. The difference between that colt's finishing time and the predicted time can give some sense of the direction of the course speed; for instance, in the 1973 Kentucky Derby, both Our Native and Forego finished at about the same time in a duel for third. Our Native's finishing time was approximately 2 minutes and 1 second flat, a fifth faster than predicted thus suggesting a course speed fast by one fifth. In 1964, when Northern Dancer finished in 2 minutes flat, of the first 4 finishers the colt closest to the predicted time was Scoundrel who secured third by a nose in 2:00 minutes and 2/5th seconds. His time was faster than the expected 2:01 4/5s by approximately 1.4 seconds suggesting a course fast by 7 fifths. Returning to 1973, if we accept that the track was fast by 1/5, then Secretariat's finishing time would be corrected to 1:59 3/5s. Transplanting that figure in combination with the model's projected time to the fast track in 1964 would give him a finishing time of 1:58 3/5s, 7 fifths faster than Northern Dancer and just 2/5s off the world record for the distance at that time. This transplanted time of 1:58.6 is a mere 1/5th slower than that predicted by Andy Beyer's methods as referenced in Bill Nack's 1974 work, Secretariat, The Making Of A Champion. Testing another example, in the 1972 Kentucky Derby, the first 4 finishers seemed to have underperformed with winner Riva Ridge finishing about 3/5ths slower than predicted. This suggests a performance influenced at least in part by a track below par. In that race, the final quarter was concluded in a tepid 25.8 seconds making it difficult to distinguish the contributions of track speed, pace and ability. This approach requires insight in determining the reference performer, the 'par' horse, but if done correctly can aid in the evaluation of actual performances. Applying these methods to Secretariat's projected time in 1920 would have the effect of inflating his figure by perhaps several seconds for the track that year was listed as "Slow", the field with Paul Jones leading finishing in two minutes and nine seconds, some 4 seconds slower than predicted. In closing, the point to take is that courses differ along an array of dimensions at any given time, the most obvious being geographical; that is, courses differ by location. An additional variant of importance is that of ‘Time in History’. The main course at Churchill Downs in 1970 might have been an entirely different course in 1920. The course is the same in terms of geography and layout, but might have been considerably different in terms of surface and speed. Put another way, the main course 3/5s fast in 1970 might have been a significantly different course 3/5s fast in 1920. It is possible the courses could be seconds apart so that simply transplanting finishing times at one point in history onto another, even after adjusting for course speeds at either end, may not suffice. Over long periods of time the task of differentiating between course speed and other factors against equine speed amplifies, and this is one challenge this work addresses.

The Belmont Stakes

Similar to the previous view, the points of discussion begin with ManO'War's comparison races, the Lawrence Realization and the Jockey Club Stakes. Though both races were run at Belmont Park, the time of year at which they occurred breaks the time of the year constant the model assumes, the Belmont Stakes in early summer to the Lawrence and Jockey Club in late summer. Also in question is the direction in which the races were conducted. It is possible that at that time all or most of Belmont races were performed in a clockwise direction instead of in the counter clockwise format that became staple in 1921. What effect this might have is not known. Continuing, ManO'War had 7 races to Secretariat's 5 leading to the Lawrence and Belmont respectively and at varying distances and weights: ManO'War's average weight carried for those seven was 127.3 ranging from 118 to 135 to Secretariat's 126 for his five, each at 126. ManO'War's distances ranged from one mile to one and three eighths; Secretariat's from seven furlongs to one and one quarter. The Lawrence was run at 1 5/8s miles, Secretariat's Belmont at 1 1/2. The Jockey Club was ran at 1 1/2, and though only two three year olds competed, ManO'War and Damask, it was his first race open to older competitors and was therefore subject to scale weight (118 pounds for three year olds); thus both competed against their age division up through the Jockey Club and the Belmont respectively. ManO'War, not including the Lawrence or Jockey Club, ran against 17 competitors in field sizes ranging from 2 to 9; Secretariat's field figures excluding the Belmont ranged from 6 to13 for a total of 24 opponents.

ManO'War's Belmont was not selected for comparison for two reasons: the distance was set at 1 3/8 miles and the dynamics of the course were markedly different-  the race was run clockwise in a non-oval format. Such deviations make comparisons difficult. The difference in distance, alone, leads to a chief consideration:  the first Belmont ran at 1.5 miles was in 1926, 6 years later. The model used for this analysis projects to the end point 1920 based on the period covering 1926 to 1972 (recall that the end point 1973 was not included in the database because that was one of the two years being predicted). How close might the 1920 prediction be if the Belmont had been ran at 1.5 miles in the traditional format?  We can't know, but if course direction has little to no effect, the Lawrence and Jockey Club Cup may lend some comparison. ManO'War was in good form for these runs and carried 126 pounds in the Lawrence as did Secretariat in the Belmont. Though the Lawrence was an eighth longer, ManO'War ran it much in the same manner he ran the Jockey Club one week later, hitting the mile and a half mark in 2:28 4/5s. Contrary to the Lawrence Realization Chart which described ManO'War as being restrained, Dorothy Our's description in her work on the colt was quite different. As there was an interest in measuring his stride among other things, his owner and trainer gave free reign to his rider allowing ManO'War to 'run his race'. There was no indication of the 'stout restraint' the chart recorded; in fact, he accelerated through the final furlong closing it in a crisp twelve seconds. Using the Excel software, it is possible to extrapolate a time for the mile and a half call based on the internal fractions of the first 1.25 miles. Doing so revises the official call to 2:28 2/5s, two fifths faster. Interpolating the same mark based on the entire race improves it to 2:28 1/5. ManO'War 's fleet final eighth completed in 12 seconds is reflected in the latter estimate. Clearly, he was better than the 2:28 4/5s recorded for the 1.5 mile mark. Returning to the prediction, we cannot tell how close the hypothetical Belmont Stakes projected to 1920 might have been had it been ran at 1.5 miles since his opponent Hoodwink, the 'par' runner, finished some 100 lengths back. The best we can tell is from the Jockey Club Stakes held one week later for in that race, also ran at 1.5 miles, the contender Damask carrying 118 pounds finished 15 lengths back, or about 2.2 seconds behind. Adding this to ManO'War's finishing time of 2:28.8 gives 2:31.00 flat, 4/5s faster than predicted. Was the course overly fast that day or did the 118 pound scale weight offer an advantage? The DRF track rating for that day was a low 02 suggesting (but not proving) a very fast track. As stated earlier, ManO'War's blistering finishing time most likely skewed it down, yet, the track may have initially been fast and that in combination with scale weight might have given Damask an edge. It seems the finishing time predicted by the model is reasonable.

Additional Findings

On examining several of Secretariat's races in slow motion with video equipment calibrated at 30 frames per second, 6 frames per fifth, the following observations were recorded:

Not a Length for a Fifth

A fifth in terms of lengths where a length is defined as 8 feet is better estimated at 1.35 lengths per fifth, about 10.8 feet, than at the traditional measure of one length per fifth. A simple exercise demonstrates this. Thoroughbreds typically run final quarters at the end of classic distances in 23.6 to 25 seconds giving a midpoint of 24.3 or a 12 clip per eighth just slower, say 12.2. This speed is approximately equal to 54.3 feet per second or 10.8 feet per fifth. Dividing 10.8 by a length of 8 feet gives 1.35. This has found consistency in texts such as Dorothy Ours' work on ManO'War entitled ManO'War, Speed Like Lightning where she cites investigators proposing estimates ranging from 1.2 to 1.4 lengths per fifth, measures close to 1.35. As will be seen, this figure has impact in determining Secretariat's Belmont Stakes margin of victory.

Kentucky Derby

At the start, Secretariat after trailing the field surges into the first turn at a speed of approx. 57 feet per second (fps) in what appears to be a leisurely stride well exceeding 26 feet in length. Shecky Greene, approximately 10 to 12 lengths ahead, casually gallops into the first turn at approx. 54 fps with a stride ranging from 23.5 to 24 feet.

At the finish, Secretariat hits the wire at approx. 54 fps with a stride a shade above 25 feet. Sham, moving at the same speed drives to the wire with strides extending to just under 24 feet in length.

Belmont Stakes

Second place Twice A Prince finished at 2:28.2, about two fifths slower than this model predicted and one fifth off of Riva Ridge's textbook performance of 2:28 flat the previous year. This observation hints at a track speed one to two fifths slow;

Secretariat ran the final quarter in 25 seconds. Twice A Prince and My Gallant completed it in 26.2, two fifths slower than Riva Ridge the previous year;

In agreement with the official record, the final quarter was ran in 25 seconds but with internal fractions expressed in seconds and hundredths of 12.45 and 12.55 for the 11th and 12th furlongs respectively. This conflicts with the 12.2 and 12.8 reported by the racing officials. Secretariat slightly decelerated through the final quarter;

In the opening half-mile, both Secretariat and Sham achieved speeds of better than 60 fps with Secretariat reaching stride lengths at or near 26 feet. Sham countered in strides closer to 25 feet. Secretariat in the second half-mile and on through the backstretch recorded speeds ranging from 55 to 57 fps with strides at or in excess of 25 feet. Through the last half-mile and on through the stretch the colt recorded speeds closer to 53 fps with strides just above 24 feet. Secretariat in finishing first sped past the wire at a rate near 52 fps. Twice-A-Prince in successfully completing the duel for second also finished at a speed near 52 fps;

Secretariat's margin of victory was closer to 28 lengths, not the official 31, and 4.2 seconds faster than the performances of Twice A Prince and My Gallant.

Prove-Out and the Woodward Stakes

Prove-Out's victory in the Woodward has been considered by some a fluke, just another one of Secretariat's losses that should not have been. Indeed, in the races leading to the 2007 Kentucky Derby, one commentator interviewing Allen Jerkins, Prove-Out's Hall-Of-Fame trainer, referred to that horse as 'a plug'. Prove-Out was anything but a plug and Mr. Jerkins knew that. Sired by Graustark who in turn was sired by the great European champion Ribot, the colt started his career on the West Coast in 1971 running only twice as a two and then sixteen times as a three. He recorded some wins in allowance races but was never considered good enough to compete at the stakes level. In this frame of mind, Prove-Out's owner looked for a buyer in 1973 and found Allen Jerkins. Whereas Prove-Out had soundness issues, bad ankles, and tended to lug in during races, Mr. Jerkins convinced the Hobeau Farm, the stable for which he was chief trainer, the horse was worth the risk. Accordingly the purchase was completed. Through insightful training programs and the use of special riding equipment, Jerkins over a relatively short period of time started to draw from the horse what he knew was there. In one of his earliest tests under Jerkin's charge, Prove-Out ran in an August allowance race at Saratoga against a field of five including the improving and future great Forego. Prove-Out ran impressively winning the contest in record time for the 7 furlong distance. In early September, a few weeks later, he ran another impressive race at Belmont Park equaling the track record for a mile and a sixteenth. As the colt improved, Allen looked for more fertile grounds, graded competition, and eventually eyed the G1 one and a half-mile Woodward Stakes. Up to then, Prove-Out had not competed in graded races, but under Allen's tutelage he was showing promise, possibly as a sprinter....or more. As Allen carefully watched the Woodward field develop, he knew that the Meadow Farm was entering one of its finest colts, the Eclipse winning 1972 Belmont Stakes winner Riva Ridge. The Meadow also entered Secretariat, but planned to run him only if the weather changed and the track turned muddy. Riva Ridge always had trouble handling off surfaces and it was decided he would be scratched and Secretariat entered if such changes occurred. As things turned, weather conditions changed, rains fell, Riva was scratched and Secretariat posted. Through all of these machinations, Allen pursued the conditioning of his horse with vigor working him in long 3 mile gallops all the way to race day. By now knowing Secretariat would run, Allen hoped to 'sneak his horse in under the radar' and steal second place. The untested Prove-Out with at best an opaque resume, the horse that just the week before had performed poorly in the first running of the  1 1/8th mile Chesapeake Stakes, entered the race as the long shot at odds of 16.20 to the dollar. Secretariat, in the 14 days since the Marlboro Cup, outside of his regular morning gallops, six of them, had only two mild test runs on the Belmont turf course. He was slowly being prepped for his first grass race in the mile and a half ManO'War Stakes held one week after the Woodward. In contrast to the Preakness, the Belmont, and the Marlboro Cup where each were preceded with 8 to 9 gallops and fast hard workouts, he had not undertaken serious training for this race. In addition, he did not work the customary prerace 4 to 5 furlong zinger that had traditionally sharpened him for his best performances; yet he entered the contest as the favorite. Also entered among the field was another fine stallion, the future Hall-of-Famer Cougar, the seven-year-old who had accomplished the great feat of winning the Santa Anita Handicap earlier that year. As not even Allen Jerkins could comprehend, Prove-Out ran a spectacular event finishing first while opening a lead of 4 1/2 lengths over Secretariat at the finish. In finishing second, Secretariat opened a lead of 11 over Cougar. Prove-Out's finishing time was an astonishing 2:25 4/5s, the second fastest recorded for the distance at Belmont Park, and performed over a muddy track. His time today still holds that position, second only to Secretariat's Belmont Stakes finish. Secretariat crossed the finish 3/5s of a second later for a time of 2:26 2/5s, a mark that again bested Gallant Man's record of 2:26 3/5s set in the early summer of 1957. Secretariat had now bested the son of Migoli twice, the first time in the Belmont Stakes over a dry course and the second in the mud of the 1973 Woodward. Since then, only two performances have bettered that mark, those of Easy Goer and A.P Indy, both set at 2:26 over dry tracks. Nevertheless, few recall the accomplishments of placers and the day belonged to Prove-Out. After Secretariat opened the first 3/4 miles in a slow 1:13 2/5s, Prove-Out finished the second with a powerful 1:12 1/5, the fastest to date. Secretariat, despite the underconditioning for the distance, also ran a spectacular event running the second 3/4s mile in 73 seconds flat, just 1/5 short of Affirmed's time in his stretch duel against Alydar in the famed '78 Belmont Stakes. Embedded within Secretariat's run was a third half-mile in 49 seconds that bettered his 49.8 in his Belmont Stakes, a time that today stands second only to Prove-Out's measure of 48 1/5 seconds. Carrying seven pounds less than Prove-Out, Secretariat ran the stretch purely on will and determination easily besting the second odds on favorite Cougar (who was running his final career race), but lacking the conditioning necessary for a severe test at the finish. At best, he might well have handled Prove-Out at a shorter distance such as at 1 1/8th miles, the same margin he had been hard prepped for in the Marlboro Cup. Film shows that after taking the lead with authority at the first 3/4 mark and opening a length and a half on Prove-Out, the horse experienced stress not far beyond the 3/8th pole. Stalked, Secretariat faded and eventually relinquished the lead to the light running but hard-driven Prove-Out. Prove-Out's final three-quarter fractions were 24, 24 1/5, to 24 flat in the stretch to Secretariat's 24, 24 2/5s, and 24 3/5s. After this encounter, both colts conquered new ground with Prove-Out winning another high graded stakes race, the G1 two mile Jockey Club Gold Cup where his finishing time was just 4/5s off the record. Secretariat finished his season on turf, dominating the G1 ManO'War Stakes and the Canadian International. In the closing weeks of the 1973 season, Prove-Out had proven himself Secretariat's most formidable opponent on dirt at the longer distances and one could only imagine the outcome had they met again. In a string of 5 races, Prove-Out defeated 3 eclipse winners, 4 future Hall-of-Famers, and set or equaled two track records.²² In those months, Allen Jerkins once again lived up to his reputation as "the Giant Killer" in first seeing and then extracting the proverbial diamond from the rough, the Champion racer from the Underachieving Loper; and in so doing earned for himself the Eclipse Award for best trainer for the year. After the Woodward, Secretariat's training staff never again inflated their confidence in their charge believing him unbeatable under any circumstances. Under sound conditioning programs, he ran twice more and never lost. Prove-Out returned the following season and was successful in only one of five starts. He was promptly retired. Was the Woodward the fluke the Whitney Stakes had been? Not exactly. Perhaps it was caused more by a lack of foresight, but even that is questionable for no one at that time could have foreseen the performance given that day by the long shot Prove-Out. One is left with hypotheticals. In those waning weeks was Prove-Out the nemesis to Secretariat that Noor had been to Citation or Beau Purple to Kelso? Certainly a premature consideration. More could have been drawn from Secretariat had he been in sound training for the race. Perhaps at least as much as 3 to 4 fifths of a second could have been trimmed from his opening fractions, still the finish would have been close. The airy running but hard-driven Prove-Out could not have performed better.

Before Closing

I). Eras

In the aftermath, it is this writer's view that Secretariat, greatest of Triple Crown winners, demonstrated a greater degree of capability and athleticism in his divisional and open campaigns than anything seen before in the three-year-old campaigns of American flat runners. Setting records against larger and more talented fields performing from and through a variety of positions on multiple courses and surfaces makes a strong argument. Still, writers and commentators note the greater diversity in ManO'War's schedule citing the higher imposts, clockwise-rotational contests, and European formats. This, too, is remarkable and it brings into question a theme not yet examined in this work, that of 'eras'. The age of post World War I was a time quite different from the one preceding it when the early foundational colts like Lexington were winning 4 mile heats. Perhaps those feats reflected ideals of a militaristic age when calvaries engaged in battle across fields of great dimension and undulating surface. Great strength, stamina, durability, and courage were necessities. The twenties brought an international flare in the wake of the Great War, emerging technologies and concepts that emphasized quickness and maneuverability across a diversity of courses in addition to the sinew, courage, sturdiness and stamina of the battle horse. This would become the template for the next 60 or so years. Through to the sixties, strength, stamina, and willingness to engage under adversity continued to be emphasized and were tested in multi-race campaigns, but racing crystallized into almost standardized formats, flat racing over oval tracks in one direction. Citation, Kelso, Dr. Fager and others fulfilled the ideals leaving large prints in the memories of professionals and muses. The consistently methodical performances of Citation, the longevity of Kelso, and the strength and speed of Fager branded milestones into the record books of the American Thoroughbred. Whereas those decades adapted contests at distances more appropriate to European formats extending major stake tests to distances of one and a half to two miles, and whereas multi-contest tournaments such as the Triple Crown developed with foreign templates in mind, they were done within a uniquely American framework. However, the years of ManO'War were transitional. Despite a growing resistance to performing in European formats, some of the big names in the industry held their positions. August Belmont II, the investor who helped finance the building of Belmont Park in 1905, held strong voice in Jockey Club circles. He desired a versatile American breed, one that could run multiple courses under a variety of formats, a breed that when asked could compete internationally. He had the Belmont Stakes run on a non-oval course in odd patterns through 1920. The first Jockey Club Cup, the race that would become the two mile Jockey Club Gold Cup, was run in 1919 at one and half miles on the main track in a clockwise direction. Only one contender entered in a walkover. Weight scales in 1919 by standards of today were set to higher levels; for instance it was not uncommon for top running twos to carry as much as 130 pounds in six furlong sprints. In as early as 1896, the two year old Hamburg won at such distances on more than one occasion while carrying 130 pounds and more (up to 135 lbs). In 1919, Golden Broom shouldered 130 lbs. in at least one contest against ManO'War. At length, these imposts may have strengthened their bearers for the more strenuous campaigns ahead. By 1972, an age no less challenging, two year olds were scaled to no more than 122 pounds but to longer distances ranging to as much as 1 1/16th miles. So comparing eras, in particular those separated by fifty years or more, is difficult. Given the time, rules are different. All that can be done is to isolate and test areas of comparability where races were ran at similar distances on similar courses at similar weights; and if possible, on the same track at about the same time of year. Or, as a last resort, one might perform logical exercises switching the horses of interest. In such a vein, how might the great slugger Hank Aron of the 1960s and 70s have fared in the1920s against pitchers of that era, or the Babe Ruth of old in the modern era? In this way, how might Secretariat have performed in 1919 and 1920 running the same schedule carrying the same weights and against the same competitors as ManO'War? There is no reason to doubt the colt would have performed at least as well if not better than ManO'War. Records on paper mask era contingent factors; what is decisive is what happens to the level of competition through the periods in question. Might ManO'War have achieved the same no-loss record he did in 1920 in 1973 running the same schedule as Secretariat? This is more difficult to tell given the improvements the breed experienced through the intervening years.

One last thought. By 1970, Hall-of-Fame trainers Luis Feustal who trained ManO'War and James 'Sonny' Fitzsimmons who trained two Triple Crown winners in the first half of the century had both passed away taking with them an age when horses were bred for sturdiness and long difficult campaigns. In their time they had witnessed the tenacity and courage that led the great champion Equipoise on impaired legs through many races; they witnessed the determination of Sir Barton in winning on tender feet America's first Triple Crown; they witnessed Seabuiscuit, the late developing conqueror that started over thirty times as a two; but they would not witness the crowning achievement of their generation, the decade of the seventies. This day would produce a host of Hall-of- Fame runners and Triple Crown winners whom would be ranked ahead of most other holders that ran before them. Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and the incomparable Ruffian each would win their respective crowns and mark a time that few can match. The great weight bearing Forego, the long distance running filly Dahlia, and the fleet Spectacular Bid would round it out with remarkable feats of their own. Some writers refer to these years as the "The Decade of Champions'. It crowned the end of an era and the beginning of a new where large purses and international interests engage the industry and its finest charges in global competition. The prominence that once belonged almost exclusively to the demanding Triple Crown campaign and other multi-event tournaments has diminished. They remain important, but the contests they contain have been reduced to singular tests among many that are used to determine the best.   

II) In the Words of Ed Bowen

Bowen:

In an interview with BloodHorse's Talkin Horses', Edward Bowen, racing historian and author of the Blood-Horse Legends biographies on ManO'War and Secretariat's sire Bold Ruler, responded to a questioner who asked him "of all the racehorses you have seen compete in your lifetime, which was the best?": "Among horses that I actually saw compete, I'll go with Secretariat. He had some baffling flaws, and a series of defeats that needed excuses, but his performance in the Belmont Stakes even now seems unbelievable." ("Talkin Horses with Ed Bowen", 2006, Bloodhorse.com). Unfortunately Mr. Bowen never elaborated on Secretariat's 'baffling flaws' but as he was referring to the losses in his career a little insight might show just what they were and in whom they actually resided. 

To start, biographers of Secretariat point to his prerace workouts as the best predictor of his success. These final tune-ups (or 'blowouts, zingers' in the racing lexicon), usually 3 to 5 furlong sprints, took place three to four days before the actual races themselves. How well they proceeded often foreshadowed not only victory but victories completed in record-breaking performances. The following table depicts these workouts as one variable within a larger array of variables that will be correlated to identify which if any bear association with his victories and losses. Their identification and definition follows:

Division (Div): The Division of the race in question. Against 3 year olds is Divisional; against older veteran horses is Open competition;

Distance (Dist): The distance of the competition;

Weight (Wght): Secretariat's impost for the competition;

Prerace Workout Score (WS): This is the time Secretariat ran in fifths represented as points faster (add) or slower (subtract) than 12 seconds (a '12 clip') per eighth of a mile (furlong) for the number of furlongs ran. This measure is similar in construction to the DRF Performance Rating where the track record for the distance is the reference point set at 100. For the Prerace Workout Score, the '12 clip' per furlong for the distance becomes the reference point of 100. It is adjusted one point for each fifth faster (add) or slower (subtract) than 100; for instance, if Secretariat worked 3 furlongs in 36 seconds, his score is 100; if he ran in 37 seconds or five fifths slower, his score is 95; and if he ran in 35 seconds or five fifths faster his score is 105. If Secretariat ran a 5 furlong workout in 60 seconds, his score is 100; if he ran it in 59 seconds, his score is 105, and so on. This variable will give some sense to the quality of Secretariat's physical conditioning prior to his races.

Field of Opposition Score (FOS): This score gives some magnitude to the caliber and size of the opposition by scoring the level of competition within the context of field size. The score is calculated by adding values ascribed to horses according to the following weights: a 3 year old non stakes winner for the season is worth 2 points; a 3 year old stakes winner is worth 5 points; a veteran non stakes winner for the season is worth 3 points, and a veteran stakes winner is worth 7; add 1 point for every 5 opponents to indicate strength of field size. For example, if Secretariat competed against a field containing 4 non-stakes winning three-year-old contenders, that field would receive a score of 8 points; if that same field contained one stakes winner the score would be 11. If the opposition contained 5 veteran colts with one stakes winner amongst them, the score would be 20 and so on. This approach while crude gives some weight not only to the quality of opposition on a horse by horse basis, but also to the vicissitudes and snares field sizes can impose. Large fields can force horses wide through turns, trap horses at the rail, or jam horses in stretches. Modern day Kentucky Derby competitions that post 20 horses provide examples of what can happen to favorites if they receive remote starting positions. The difficulty level of execution rises dramatically which can cause tactical nightmares to develop.

Daily Racing Form Track Score (TS): The DRF developed this score in an attempt to rate the quality of the track surface. Setting the track record for the distance at 100, it is the average distance in fifths from 100 a daily schedule of races was completed in. In theory, a score in the range of 10 implies a dry but moderate to good fast track; a score in the range of 15 or more a slow track, usually wet and sloppy, or a course deep at the rail; and a score in the range of 5 generally implies a dry hard fast track. With the use of more complex procedures, handicappers use this score to rate the quality of a horse's performances.

Daily Racing Form Performance Rating (PR): Used in conjunction with the DRF Track Score, this rating is determined according to the course record for the distance set at 100 with performances adjusted in fifths according to whether or not they exceed or perform below the record. For example, on a particular course where the record for a mile is 1:35 seconds, a horse performing on that course in 1:36, five fifths slower, would receive a rating of 95; a performance five fifths faster receives a score of 105. As with the DRF Track Score, this rating is used by handicappers in conjunction with more complex procedures in determining the quality of racing performances.

Data Table 1973

Using the Systat Statistical Software, the following tables of correlations between the variables were derived:

Correlation Table I

All Twelve Races 1973

Pearson Correlations

                     WS          WGHT         FOS             TS           PR         DIV      DIST

 WS                 1.000

 WGHT               0.306        1.000

 FOS                0.192       -0.453        1.000

 TS                -0.373        0.265       -0.438        1.000

 PR                 0.549        0.219        0.033       -0.673        1.000

 DIV               -0.220       -0.889        0.437       -0.366       -0.080        1.000

 DIST              -0.239       -0.603        0.417       -0.629        0.307        0.485     1.000

Few variables were strongly associated, most mildly linked. The strongest found was that between weight (WGHT) and division (DIV), the inverse relationship to be expected for when Secretariat competed against older horses, but for the Marlboro Cup Handicap he carried scale weight; and when competing against divisional rivals, he carried top weight. The next strongest was the inverse relationship between the DRF Track Scores (TS) and Performance Rating (PR), that is when the track scores were high, the performance ratings tended to drop; and vice-versa when the scores were low. As stated in other parts of this study, this relationship is somewhat specious in that Secretariat's own performances are co-extensive with these scores; that is, the colt's strong performances may have skewed down the scores.  The best approach would have been to perform the calculations just prior to Secretariat's runs, thus excluding any outlier effects. In the language of statistical analysis, this is known as auto-correlation and should be avoided when possible. The next in strength is that between Workout Score (WS) and the DRF Performance Rating (PR), a positive association suggesting that when Secretariat had high prerace workout scores, his actual race performances improved; and when the former weakened, the latter weakened as well. The correlation is mild but pointing in the direction observed by biographers. Another association to note is found between the Field of Opposition Scores FOS and the DRF Track Scores. This somewhat weak figure suggests that larger field scores created more demanding circumstances thereby producing stronger performances. Once again, Track Score is somewhat specious in that Secretariat's times are included in the scores making it difficult to separate the effects of his performances. More interesting is the relationship between his performance ratings (PR) and the FOS which is positive but low indicating field size had little effect on outcomes. He ran his races against both large and small fields running in a fluid style in all circumstances, coming from the back or leading at the front, at the rail, between horses or wide through the turns, a versatility that made strategy difficult for his opponents. It also points to the colt's final start in the International on deep Canadian soil under adverse weather conditions. Stalking or leading the pace for the duration, that performance recorded a stakes margin of victory record of near seven lengths, an accomplishment seldom achieved by pace setters running long distances on grass. It was the finale that secured for Secretariat the Eclipse title for Grass Horse of the Year. One last note of interest references the relationship between Track Score and Distance against the backdrop of the questionable nature of TS.  The score of  -0.629 suggests that as distances increased, Secretariat turned in his finest performances driving down TS to low figures. It supports those that classify Secretariat a strong long distance runner, a characteristic found in the pedigree of his dam.

These initial findings cover all 12 races and divisions. The seven dirt competitions succeeding the Wood Memorial are more interesting; and for this subset, the following variables and correlations are revealing:

Correlation Table II

 Kentucky Derby to the Woodward Stakes, 7 Races

Pearson Correlations

                       WS           PR          FOS         WGHT            DIST       TS

 WS                   1.000

 PR                   0.774        1.000

 FOS                  0.147        0.097        1.000

 WGHT                 0.691        0.809        0.134        1.000

  DIST                -0.619       -0.009       -0.214       -0.142        1.000

 TS                  -0.363       -0.776       -0.374       -0.410       -0.308        1.000

Inspecting these figures, of those associations impacting performance most, the connection between Workout Scores and Performance Rating experienced a significant strengthening. Although the links between Workout Scores and Weight and Workout Scores and Distance experienced the strongest increases, these are artifacts not impacting outcomes. For instance, some of Secretariat's highest prerace workouts occurred when prepped for races in which the colt carried top weight, usually but not always in divisional competition. The high inverse association between Distance and Workout Scores may be tied to the low workout rating preceding the Woodward Stakes, the distance set at 1.5 miles sans the prerace workout. The lack of the workout strongly affected the correlation in the negative direction. The remainder of the variables can be said to move in directions similar to and for the same reasons as those explored in the paragraphs referencing Correlation Table I. Returning for a moment to Secretariat's prerace workout scores, when looking at all of his races, when the scores were less than 100, he was successful in only one of four starts or 25 percent of the time. When greater than 100, he was a perfect eight for eight on any surface, whether on slop or on dry top; whether on firm ground or in deep turf in the midst of the cold, sleeting weather of Canada. With such conditioning, the horse never lost while equaling or setting records in 7 of those 8 contests. When looking exclusively at the dirt races following the Wood Memorial, the subset in question here, it is apparent something occurred both during and after the Kentucky Derby. Quite frankly, the Secretariat that entered the Derby was not the same that emerged from it. The Kentucky Derby is a tactical race, more of a trap-laden Maiden Race, a Medusa's Head of Snares that historically has toppled such greats as Native Dancer and Damascus and one that many shared concerns about Secretariat's odds of winning. Secretariat entered as one of many hopefuls but exited a Pegasus sprung from the ashheap leaving many to wonder what had happened in the Wood Memorial. The Secretariat during the Derby was a colt elevated into new dimensions of speed over long distance demanding greater levels of stamina and acceleration with each succeeding furlong. It would be the performance that launched the rest of the season and it seems his prerace workouts primed him for each stride along the way. Elaborating further, consider the following starts covering a few of Secretariat's wins and losses. With a workout score of 117 before the Bay Shore (this sprint shattered the world record for the distance by close to one full second), he won on a sloppy Aqueduct course at seven furlongs. With a score of 68 preceding the Wood Memorial, the colt lost;  with a score of 99 before the Whitney, a loss followed; and with a score of 0 indicating that there was no workout before the Woodward Stakes, the colt lost. The following cross tabulations taken from the Data Table bring this into closer relief.

Cross Tabulations Taken from the Data Table 1973

All Races 1973

Racing Performances (rows): Loss is Placing or less in actual races; Win is a 1st place finish; Quality of Prerace Workouts (columns): Weak is a workout score less than 100, Strong equal to or greater than 100;

Racing Performances by Prerace Workouts

  All races 1973

          Prerace    Weak Strong    Total

                   +-------------+

 Performances Loss |    3     0    |    3 Losses

               Win |    1     8    |    9 Wins

                   +-------------+

             Total      4        8         12

Position Loss/Weak of this first tab reveals that all of Secretariat's losses were accompanied by prerace workouts that were either weak or non-existent. Position Win/Weak shows the one case where he successfully performed in a race despite a subperformance in the workout. All losses were accompanied by poor workouts but not all wins were preceded by strong workouts. A win rate of 25%, 1 in 4, followed poor workouts while one of 100%, 8 for 8, followed strong workouts. While this tab is revealing, it is so only in a general sense; more detail can be extracted:

Divisional 3 Year Olds

Pre-Derby Races (Bayshore, Gotham Stakes, Wood Memorial)

 Prerace    Weak Strong     Total

 Perform +-------------+

    Loss |    1     0    |     1 Losses

     Win |    1     1    |     2 Wins

         +-------------+

   Total      2     1      3

<Bookmark(10)>

Triple Crown and Arlington Invitational

 Prerace        Wk  Str    Total

 Perform      +--------+

        Loss  | 0   0 |  0 Losses

         Win  | 0   4 |  4 Wins

              +-------+

        Total   0   4    4

Post-Divisional

Open Competition 3 And Up (Whitney Stakes, Marlboro Cup, WoodWard Stakes, ManO'War Stakes, Canadian International)

 Prerace           Wk     Str        Total

 Performance   +---------------+

           Loss|    2     0    |    2 Losses

           Win |    0     3  |  3 Wins

               +-------------+

         Total      2     3     5

(Note: the underlined stakes races were preceded by weak or no prerace sprints.)

In his first prerace sprint (a.k.a. 'zinger', or 'blowout') as a three, Secretariat completed the 3 furlong workout in 32 3/5 seconds earning a score of 117, 4/5s faster than the world record for the distance at that time. Included in this workout was an internal quarter completed in 21 2/5s, 3/5s off the world record for that distance. This blistering workout was followed by an easy win in the mud at the Bayshore Stakes finishing some three lengths ahead of the game Champagne Charlie. 

In his next race, the Gotham Stakes, Secretariat followed a subpar workout with a score of 97 with a hard fought victory over the same determined Champagne Charlie. Pulling away in late stretch, Secretariat went on to win by about two lengths. The colt was clocked overrunning the finish an extra 3 sixteenths for a mile and a quarter in 1:59 2/5s, a time that would be reproduced in the Kentucky Derby. Also, in this race the colt equaled the track record for the mile and one-sixteenth distance while moving on to set a new speed record for the Gotham.

Secretariat then followed an abysmal workout scored at 68 with a weak performance in the Wood Memorial, edging Champaign Charlie and Step Nicely for third in a photo. It seems his workouts had been progressing poorly in the weeks prior to the Wood and Jim Gaffney, Secretariat's exercise rider, voiced his concerns. Either Mr. Gaffney's reports were never heard or were dismissed.

During this pre-Derby period, Secretariat completed a win rate of 50.0% following subpar workouts (1 in 2) while earning a rate of 100.0% following strong ones (one for one). 

The Triple Crown and Arlington period provided performances in strong contrast to the previous weeks. All prerace sprints portrayed strong demonstrations of speed over distances from four to five furlongs and were each followed with some of the finest racing performances witnessed in American competition. Three of the four races resulted in stakes and track records, one a world record for the surface, and the fourth (the Arlington Invitational) a fifth off the record over a course that was deep at the rail and ran wide through the turns. All four workouts were strong and were followed with victories for a win rate of 100%.

The Open Competition period was again ran in contrast to the previous sets. Competing in five races against stronger veteran horses, two of the prerace sprints were either subpar or non-existent: the workout preceding the Whitney earned a score of 99 while that before the Woodward was non-existent. Both were followed with losses with the Whitney delivering a poor performance and the Woodward an effort that was strong but a loss non-the-less. The three sessions for the remaining races were exceptional, and each were followed with record setting performances: a world mark in the Marlboro Cup, a course and Stakes record in the ManO'War Stakes, and a new margin-of-victory standard achieved under adverse weather conditions in the Canadian International. Poor or non-existent workouts were followed with a win rate of 0.0% while strong workouts were followed with one of 100%.

It is clear the effect strong workouts had on Secretariat's performances. Weak 'zingers' were symptomatic of problems that Secretariat's administrators may have misinterpreted or dismissed, or were compelled to dismiss in the face of pressure. Secretariat's fame may have preceded his losses forcing his entry into contests where others might have been withdrawn. Each loss was preceded by a record breaking or near record breaking race performance indicating his victories and the quality of his performances may have prodded his administrators into complacency. Awakened, each defeat was followed with another record breaking performance. It appears that Mr. Bowen's 'baffling flaws' resided not in Secretariat's constitution but in his human connections and in the circumstances they found themselves in.

Closing

Final Words

Such distinctions as 'The Greatest" or "The Best of the Best" are tentative at best, and biased at worst. According to Ed Bowen, "its just a guess" that depends on how one ranks the differing achievements of great racehorses. ("Talkin Horses" with Ed Bowen, www.bloodhorse.com.).

As horses chisel into stone their legacies, champions leave indelible marks in distinct regions of talent that define them. When isolating these traits in the career of ManO'War it is difficult to separate fact from fiction, the true ManO'War from the Men-Of-Lore that transformed much hearsay into fact; but that which has been well documented and corroborated records for the colt a formidable talent set across a swath of dimensions including speed, stamina over distance and determination under heavy loads that truly sets the ideal for any competitor in any age. In the September of his 1920 campaign, 3 record setting races in 3 weeks 2 of which marked distances of at least 1.5 miles and a concluding third at 1 1/16 under an impost of 138 lbs are illustrative. With rare exceptions, his speed and power is only hinted at in his descendants. In 1948, it was a series of heart attacks that finally ended the life of this athlete, perhaps the world's greatest colt on any course at any time. It is fitting that the heart that led this specimen into history would also be the heart, the only heart, that finally defeated him. The great monument that guards his remains at the gates to Kentucky Horse Park stands secure burning his legacy into the minds and memories of generations both young and old.

Secretariat, at 3 years of age may have been the colt of greatest potential to grace an American track. While sustaining a record less than perfect, his losses served merely as prelude to some of the most explosive moves witnessed in American competition, moves that carried him through both short and long runs against both small and large talented fields. When fit and trained, the colt performed on all cylinders and could not be defeated. He seemed in possession of an intangible power endowed with an unlimited supply of speeds and gears that not even his trainers and riders could comprehend. Whether coming from far off pace or in a speed duel down the stretch, he simply looked within, selected, and drew away, and this against fields including veteran eclipse winners and future Hall-of-Famers some of which would be ranked among the best of the all-time best. To illustrate, it might be said the colt completed an American 'Grand Slam' when following the Triple Crown procession with a victory in the first running of the Marlboro Cup. In that race Secretariat gave scale weight to the finest veteran dirt horses in the world. The field that day offered a resume logging over sixty stakes wins, 4 eclipse winners, and 4 future Hall-of-Famers. It was a fine assembly of talent that included multiple winners of such graded contests as the Triple Crown events, the Santa Anita and the Hollywood Gold Cup Invitational Handicaps, the Metropolitan, Brooklyn, and Suburban Handicaps, the Woodward Stakes, the Travers Stakes and others. It may have been a forerunner to the modern Breeder's Cup Classic. Secretariat's only area of contention was that due to his transfer from private ownership to syndicate control, his early retirement preempted the completion of his card. His weight bearing abilities were not explored. How might have he been rated? The late Daily Racing Form columnist Charles Hatton noted in the 1974 American Racing Manual that the 1973 Jockey Club chief handicapper Ken Noe Jr. once "threatened Secretariat with an impost of 138 lbs in open competition" at one and a half miles. Had this come to fruition, it would have been a staggering load that historically only the best of older horses might have carried. Champion Kelso only once in his long career carried greater than 126 pounds at such distances, 129 pounds as a five year old. All together, many of those that judge racing achievement have been willing to give exception to deficiencies in Secretariat's record for the ranges, capabilities and accomplishments witnessed in his shortened career grant proof sufficient to dispel doubts.²⁰ Today, the blood that once pulsed through Secretariat's heart still surges through some of his most coveted descendants the likes of AP Indy and Storm Cat. Sires a few generations younger such as Smarty Jones are yet to be tested.

Citation's claim was established in winning 28 of his first 30 starts which encased a streak of 15 wins inclusive of all Triple Crown events. Many of those victories included wins against veteran contenders. Like Secretariat, Citation as a three defeated a distinguished list of eclipse winners and American Hall-of -Famers to include Phalanx, Coaltown and Armed, the latter two ranked among the top 50 of Blood-Horse's list of America's Top 100 Thoroughbreds. Citation's finest achievement may have been following his win in the Sysonsby mile with a victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at two miles with a rest time of only four days. No other champion ever accomplished such a feat. In his first two seasons, he painted a portrait of remarkable endurance and consistency that few if any runners have approached. His descendants carry the distinguished lines of Bull Lea whose name appears time and again in the pedigrees of champions.

Count Fleet the Triple Crown champion whose 1943 Belmont Stakes ranks as possibly the second fastest of the century. After taking environmental conditions into account, it seems the track that day may have been as much as two seconds slow allowing for an adjusted time closer to 2:26.2. This is a finish that puts his performance just ticks behind Secretariat's Belmont run after applying projection adjustments. His rider John Longden often commented on the enormous reserve the horse had at the finish of his races, and lamented the fact of his premature retirement. 

Swaps, highly underrated in the Blood-Horse rankings, may have been a top ten contender. Legendary jockey Eddie Arcaro once quipped that of all great racehorses, this champion's career was the most poorly managed. In truth, he may have completed the best four-year-old campaign on record setting track and world records at both short and long distances while lugging large imposts. It seems his accomplishments should have been rated along with or perhaps exceeded those of Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Spectacular Bid. 

New Zealand's Phar Lapp, primarily a turf runner, has also been underrated. Based on his performances, Australian handicapping scales were revised to better accommodate his opponents. His one American race in the Agua Caliente Stakes merely offered a hint of his potential on dirt courses and all indications demonstrated that he would have been just as formidable. The high anticipation of his presence in American fields was squelched by the misfortune of his sudden and unexplained death, a tragedy that still haunts horsemen today. His life is well memorialized in Australia's Hall-of-Legends.

A guess it is, but an educated one. It is this writer’s view based on this analysis that all things other than capability being equal, Secretariat had speed untapped and this in combination with the remarkable stamina his physical constitution delivered would have given him a decisive advantage in any classic distance contest the 20th century might have offered, turf or dirt.

In October of 1989 a debilitating case of laminitis would lead to Secretariat's death. After his demise, only an abbreviated autopsy was allowed to satisfy insurance purposes. When the veterinary pathologist opened his chest to complete his examination he was taken aback at the site of the largest heart he had ever seen. In his examination, he determined there was no disease associated with it, it was just large. Unfortunately, because the time required for the operation conflicted with the burial schedule, and partly because the operation took place in an alternate facility lacking access to needed equipment, the heart was neither weighed nor photographed. The heart specimen itself was soon returned along with other detached organs to the owners for burial with the horse. The pathologist concluded that in size, it was at least twice that of the average thoroughbred, an observation which coincided with the results of medical tests administered to Secretariat when he was a young three-year-old^{(1974 American Racing Manual)}. Some years later the same pathologist would detach and weigh the second largest heart he had ever seen when he autopsied Secretariat's strongest divisional rival Sham. It weighed 19 pounds.^* Based on this examination, Secretariat's heart was re-evaluated as weighing in the neighborhood of 21 pounds, a claim that would spark a search for the genetic lines and dynamics involved in passing this trait from one generation to the next. Even in death, Secretariat astonishes observers.

*This data was received through email correspondence with Dr. Thomas Swerczek, the University of Kentucky Veterinary Pathologist who performed the autopsy.

There are those who can still recall the crowds surging as Secretariat surged. Whether bursting forward for that great looping run in the Preakness or being restrained in the aftermath of Kentucky's greatest move, or simply standing still calmly awaiting his next call, Secretariat now as then captures hearts. Secretariat, the horse whose speed, power, grace and heart are the measure for generations to come, stands alone among the Titans-of-Time, measureless in scale, born to run.

Abstract